By Wu Minwen
吴敏文
With the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a stalemate, Russian President Putin met with Kazakhstan President Tokayev in the resort city of Sochi by the Black Sea on August 19, giving some certainty to the recently somewhat teetering bilateral relations. In the same period, the US held the Regional Cooperation 2022 joint military exercise with the six countries of Mongolia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan from August 10 to 20. It’s clear that competition among major countries is on the rise in Central Asia.
8月19日，在俄乌冲突陷入胶着之际，俄罗斯总统普京在黑海之滨的度假胜地索契会见哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫，给一段时间以来似乎充满不确定性的俄哈关系注入了一定的确定性。与此同时，8月10日至20日，美国与蒙古国、巴基斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦等六国举行了名为“区域-2022”的联合军演。种种迹象表明，大国在中亚的角力方兴未艾。
The Eurasian continent is no doubt the center and pivot of global geopolitics now. The five Central Asian countries and their surrounding neighbors include almost all the main “chess players” and “axis countries” in the Eurasian geopolitical game, enmeshing Central Asia in the major-country competition.
欧亚大陆无疑是全球地缘政治的关键和要点。当今世界，中亚五国及其周边国家，几乎包括了欧亚大陆地缘政治博弈的所谓“棋手”和“支轴国家”中的主要成员，这就决定了中亚无法置身大国博弈之外。
The interdependence between Russia and Central Asian countries will last long.
一是俄罗斯与中亚国家之间的相互依存将长期存在。
Either from the historical and cultural perspective – Central Asian countries used to be members of the Soviet Union – or from the perspective of geopolitical interests, Central Asia is an indispensable link for Russia’s national interests and security. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has further strained the relationship between Russia and the US or the broader West. The more so, the more Russia needs to ensure steady relations and border security with Asian countries, especially the five Central Asian countries.
无论从曾经是苏联加盟共和国的历史文化角度，还是从实际的地缘政治利益上考虑，中亚都是俄罗斯国家利益和安全不可或缺的环节。俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯与美国和西方国家的关系更加紧张。越是在这样的情况下，俄罗斯越是需要确保与亚洲国家，尤其是中亚五国之间的关系稳定和边界安全。
The five of them not only have inseparable cultural, historical and geographical connections with Russia but also depend on Russia – at least partly – for economic development and other interests. For instance, given their low level of economic development, a lot of young people in the five countries see Russia as the land of hope and future, and remittances from Russia become an important source of capital for them. Meanwhile, the two sides also enjoy close trade relations and great economic complementarity.
对于中亚五国而言，与俄罗斯之间在文化、历史、地理等方面有割不断的联系，在经济发展和实际利益方面，中亚五国也对俄罗斯有一定的依赖。例如，中亚五国经济发展水平都不高，大量年轻人把到俄罗斯寻求发展视作前途所在，从俄罗斯汇回来的款项甚至成为这些国家的重要资金来源。同时，俄罗斯与中亚国家也存在密切的贸易关系和经济互补性。
This means the relationship between Russia and Central Asian countries may change depending on the changes in the global situation and in Russia’s global standing, but their interdependence will last long by and large.
这就决定俄罗斯与中亚国家之间的关系，可能依据全球局势的变化、俄罗斯的全球地位有所调整。但是，总的来说，它们之间的依存关系将会长期存在。
The US and the West will reinforce their influence in Central Asia.
二是美国和西方将会强化在中亚的影响力。
The US and the West are using the Russia-Ukraine conflict to erode Russia’s national strengths and international influence – at the expense of Ukraine, and this also gives them an opportunity to reinforce their clout in Central Asia. That the US-led “Regional Cooperation 2022” joint military exercise involves Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan implies the growing infiltration of external forces in the region.
美国和西方借俄乌冲突之机，在以消耗乌克兰为代价的同时，大量消耗俄罗斯的国力和国际影响力，这也成为美国和西方加强在中亚影响力的可乘之机。美国主导的“区域-2022”联合军事演习涵盖哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦四国，这客观表明域外势力对中亚的渗透在加深。
A dominant regional power is hard to come along.
三是主导性地区大国难以形成
Of the five Central Asian countries, only Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have a population of more than 10 million. Tajikistan is close to that line, while Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have only millions of people. All being inland countries, they are on a low level of economic and social development with limited capacities. Major countries come to infiltrate and intervene for their own interests. In America’s global strategy, the appearance of any dominant power in any region would be considered a threat to its hegemony – first Asia Pacific, then Europe, and now Central Asia, where no such power has appeared so far.
中亚五国中，人口千万级别的只有乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦，塔吉克斯坦人口接近千万，土库曼斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦人口都在百万级，加之都是内陆国家，经济社会发展水平不高，因而自身力量非常有限。大国的渗透和干预，主要着眼于大国自身利益。在美国的全球战略中，任何地区出现主导性大国都被视作对美国霸权的威胁，在亚太是这样，在欧洲是这样，在中亚毫无疑问也是这样，这就使得中亚地区很难出现地区主导性国家。
Editor's note: The author is from the College of Information and Communication, National University of Defense Technology. This article is originally published on zqb.cyol.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
