楼春豪
By Lou Chunhao
在前不久发布的最新版国家安全战略中，俄罗斯将与独联体国家、中国和印度的关系一起列为主要外交目标，这立即让俄罗斯在“向东看”过程中如何把握俄印关系受到新一轮关注。
In its latest national security strategy released recently, Russia listed its relations with members of the former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), China and India as primary diplomatic targets, which immediately captured attention to Russia’s bilateral relations with India in its strategic eastward shift.
本月初，印度外长苏杰生出访俄罗斯，这是继俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫今年4月出访印度之后，两国之间又一次重要的外事活动。苏杰生在普里马科夫世界经济与国际关系研究所发表题为“变化世界中的印俄关系”演讲，并在演讲中强调“地缘政治包容、领导层互信、民众情感是俄印关系主要驱动力”，称赞俄印关系“历久弥坚”，“系二战后全世界最稳定的大国关系之一”。
Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Russia early this month is a major diplomatic event between the two countries after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited India in April this year. In his speech titled “India-Russia ties in achangingworld” at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Jaishankar underscored “geo-political compatibility, leadership trust and popular sentiment” as the key drivers of bilateral ties, and the “relations between Russia and India have been among the steadiest of the major relationships in the world after the Second World War”.
看得出来，俄印政府都展现了对彼此关系的重视和期待。那么，俄印关系是真如苏杰生所言“历久弥坚”，还是两国政府试图通过这种高调表态掩饰日渐扩大的分歧呢？这是一个值得深入观察和讨论的问题。
It’s clear that both the Russian and Indian governments place great importance and expectations on bilateral relations. But are the relations, as the Indian Foreign Minister put it, “enduring”, or are the two governments just making a high-profile statement to cover their widening divergences? This is a question worth in-depth observation and discussion.
首先，俄印关系不会完全分道扬镳。一是历史惯性使然。与两国对华、对美关系相比较，俄印自冷战时期就既不对彼此构成安全威胁，亦未发生军事冲突，在诸多战略议题上也基本保持一致，可以说“没有历史负债”。
First of all, Moscow and New Delhi won’t part their ways completely. For one thing, compared with their relations with China and the US, the two countries have never posed a security threat to each other or broken into any military conflict ever since the Cold War period, and they have seen eye to eye on many strategic issues, having no historical burden on their back.
特别是对印度而言，虽然近年来竭力发展对美关系，但新德里内心清楚，俄罗斯对印度“大国梦”的支持远较包括美国在内的其他国家更为坚定。比如，冷战时期美苏对抗与印巴冲突相互交织，南亚格局更多地是美巴站在一边，而印度则与苏联在同一战壕；1998年印度核试验之后，俄罗斯也没有像美国一样制裁印度。
In recent years, India has tried hard to develop its relations with the US, but New Delhi is fully aware that Russia is far more supportive of its “major country dream” than the US and other countries. For example, the Cold War witnessed the tangling of the US-Soviet confrontation and India-Pakistan conflicts, but in South Asia, the US sided with Pakistan whereas India stood with the Soviet Union. After India conducted a nuclear test in 1998, Russia didn’t sanction it either as the US did.
二是现实利益需要。虽然面临日益严峻的挑战，但俄印在军工、核能、反恐以及经济发展等领域的合作基础和潜力依然不可低估。比如，俄式武器迄今仍是印度军队占比最高的外国装备，而印度也顶着美国的压力坚持要购买俄罗斯S-400防空导弹。更重要的是，俄印都将彼此视作推动构建多极世界的重要合作力量，都希望成为多极世界的一极。
For another, Russia-India cooperation suits the interests of both countries. Despite severe challenges, the two countries’ cooperation foundation and potential in such fields as military, nuclear energy, counter-terrorism and economic development should not be underestimated. For instance, Russian weapons are still dominant among foreign weaponry and equipment in Indian troops, and India has insisted on buying its S-400 air defense missiles against pressure from the US. More importantly, both Moscow and New Delhi view each other as a key partner in building a multi-polar world, in which they will each be a pole.
因此，印度依然希望俄罗斯在其“入常”问题上提供支持，而俄罗斯也希望拉住印度对冲美西方的战略挤压。综上，俄印关系的合作主基调难以且并未被根本动摇，两国关系更不可能走向对立。
Therefore, India still hopes for Russia’s support for it to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and Russia needs India’s help to hedge the strategic squeezing by US-led western countries. The cooperation key tone of their relations is hard to shake and the two countries won’t turn against each other either.
其次，俄印关系不会依旧亲密如初。百年未有大变局之下，主要大国之间的双边关系也经历着急剧调整。美国将中国视作战略竞争对手并予以全方位打压，中美关系急剧下滑；中俄确立新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系，两国战略协作达到历史最佳水平；中印关系竞争性与波动性更为突出，加勒万河谷冲突使得双边关系跌入阶段性最低点；美俄关系“低位运行”，制裁与反制裁、遏制与反遏制成为双边关系主基调。
Second, Moscow and New Delhi won’t be as close as before. Bilateral relations between major countries are going through drastic adjustments as the world is seeing profound changes never seen in a century. The China-US relations have plummeted as Washington views Beijing as a strategic rival and has imposed all-round suppression; the China-Russia strategic coordination is at its best in history as the two countries establish the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era; the China-India relations are mainly characterized by competition and fluctuation, with the Galwan Valley conflict plunging them to a record low; and the US-Russia relations have been running on a low level with sanctions and anti-sanctions, containment and counter-containment being the keynote.
在此情势下，俄印关系必然会受到自身对外战略调整以及中美战略竞争的牵引。特别是近段时期印度与美国越走越近、与中国渐行渐远的态势比较明显，这也给俄印关系带来巨大挑战。
Under such circumstances, the Russia-India relationship is bound to be affected by their adjustment of foreign strategy and the China-US strategic competition. Especially, New Delhi’s obvious inclination to stand by the US against China lately is challenging its relationship with Moscow.
俄印对中美战略竞争所持的不同立场以及采取的差别政策，是导致两国分歧增多的重要因素。在俄罗斯看来，美国对中国的战略压制或者对中俄的“双遏制”政策，都是为了维持美国的霸权体系，都不利于多极世界的构建。而在印度看来，中美战略竞争的加剧可以为其提供“渔翁得利”之机，有助于印度借助美国之力防范和制衡中国。
The two sides’ different stances and policies on the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing are an important reason for their growing divergences. In Moscow’s opinion, America’s strategic suppression of China or its dual suppression policy toward China and Russia is to maintain its own hegemony, which is no good for building a multi-polar world. But New Delhi sees an opportunity in the aggravated strategic competition between the world’s two largest economies to prevent and check China’s development leveraging on the US.
这种分歧还集中体现在两国对“印太”的不同看法上。俄罗斯对美国的“印太战略”持批评态度，并就此多次公开敲打印度；而印度则“积极对接”乃至“全面拥抱”美国的“印太战略”，多次向俄罗斯解释印度立场，甚至将俄罗斯远东发展也纳入“印太”框架之下，以此游说俄罗斯支持“印太”。
Their divergence is also reflected in their different views on the “Indo-Pacific”. Russia is critical of America’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and has warned India about it on many public occasions; yet India is actively aligning with and embracing the strategy, not only explaining its stance to Moscow many times but also putting the Far East’s development under the “Indo-Pacific” framework in the effort to secure Russia’s support for the strategy.
综上，俄印在对待中美关系、“印太”战略上的政策分歧短期难以消弭，且会逐步逐级传导至双边关系其他领域，两国“间隙”增多将是不争事实。
In sum, Russia and India’s policy divergences on the China-US relations and the “Indo-Pacific” strategy won’t easily go away in the short term but will radiate to bilateral relations and other areas, leading to more areas of disagreement between the two countries.
最后，俄印关系不会单向线性发展。俄印是国际政治舞台的重要力量，两国都希望在百年未有之大变局下积极作为，都在对外战略上采取了不同程度的调整，加之中美俄印各组关系的互动、地区热点议题的搅动、全球治理议题的联动，使得俄印关系受到日益增多的因素的影响。
At last, the Russia-India relations won’t be a one-way, linear deal. As important forces on the international political stage, both countries hope to make a difference in an era of profound changes never seen in a century and have adjusted their foreign strategies to varying degrees. Besides, the bilateral or multilateral interactions among China, America, Russia and India, regional hotspot issues, and the discussion of global governance are all putting their weight on the Russia-India relationship.
俄罗斯和印度都是中国的重要邻邦，是中国在国际上更好维护发展中国家权益的重要合作伙伴，与中国在金砖国家合作机制、中俄印三边合作平台上也有良好合作基础。因此，俄印关系的走向自然会影响到中俄印三边合作的成效。诚如中国国务委员兼外长王毅所指出的，“对于中俄印未来合作前景，外界总有一些质疑，但我们三国首先拥有广泛深刻的共同利益和共同理念”，“只要三国坚持团结合作，我们就能为这个世界提供更多正能量和稳定性”。
As China’s important neighbors, Russia and India are both key partners for China to better protect the developing countries’ rights and interests on the global stage, and they both have sound cooperation with China either in the BRICS mechanism or the trilateral cooperation platform. Therefore, the development of the relation between Moscow and New Delhi will naturally affect the trilateral cooperation of China, Russia and India. As China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out, “there are always some doubts about the prospects of China-Russia-India cooperation. But the fact is that the three countries have extensive and entrenched common interest and concept”; “as long as we keep working together in solidarity, we will be able to provide more positive energy and stability to the world”.
（作者是中国现代国际关系研究院南亚研究所副所长）
(The author is Deputy Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)
