By Dai Xunxun
代勋勋
With the announcement of the US presidential election results as a watershed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shown two interconnected yet contradictory developments. On the one hand, the Biden administration has increased its support for Ukraine, aiming to work with European allies to firmly back Ukraine during its remaining term, which has led to a significant escalation in the intensity of the conflict in the short term. On the other hand, with the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House, there has been a shift in the positions of the parties involved in the conflict, raising the possibility of Russia and Ukraine returning to the negotiating table.
近期，大致以美国大选结果公布为分水岭，俄乌冲突呈现出两种相互关联却又矛盾的走势。一方面，拜登政府加大援乌力度，企图在剩余任期内协同欧洲盟友坚决挺乌，短期内导致战事烈度升级明显；另一方面，特朗普即将回归白宫，引起冲突各方态度调整，俄乌重回谈判桌的可能性上升。
Since the beginning of this year, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has continued along the trajectory of a war of attrition. The Biden administration intends to accelerate support for Ukraine in the remainder of its term, with the US, the UK, and France all authorizing Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep within Russian territory. Ukraine has used long-range weapons such as the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack targets within Russian territory several times. This is another escalation of military action against Russia, following Ukraine's attack on Russia's Kursk Oblast region. Although the Biden administration's actions to escalate the conflict will not fundamentally alter the overall situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, they can perpetuate the conflict by assisting Ukraine, thus helping Ukraine get more bargaining chips in future negotiations.
今年以来，俄乌冲突继续沿着消耗战轨道进行。拜登政府有意在剩余任期内联合盟友加速援乌，美、英、法均授权乌使用远程武器打击俄罗斯本土纵深。乌数次使用美援陆军战术导弹、英援“风暴阴影”巡航导弹等远程武器，袭击俄境内目标。这是继乌进攻俄库尔斯克州后，对俄军事行动的再次升级。尽管拜登政府的拱火行为不会从根本上改变俄乌战场的总体态势，却能通过向乌克兰提供援助延宕俄乌战事，助乌在后续可能的谈判中增加筹码。
The increasingly tense battlefield situation and security pressure have prompted Russia to seek stronger measures to deter the US and other Western countries. On November 19, Russia updated the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, further lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. According to the document, any aggression against Russia and/or its allies by a non-nuclear state, with the participation or support of a nuclear state, will be considered a joint attack on Russia initiated by both the non-nuclear and nuclear states. On November 21, Russia used the Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile without a nuclear warhead to carry out a precision strike on an industrial area in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine, as a strategic deterrence action, warning Ukraine and NATO to remain cautious in their actions and positions towards Russia.
日益趋紧的战场局势和安全压力，促使俄寻求更强势手段慑止美西方。11月19日，俄更新《俄罗斯联邦核威慑国家基本政策》，核武器使用门槛进一步降低。根据该文件，任何无核国家在有核国家参与或支持下对俄和（或）其盟国的侵略，都将被视为无核国家和有核国家对俄发起的联合攻击。11月21日，俄使用未搭载核弹头的“榛树”中程高超音速导弹，对乌克兰第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州一处工业区实施精确打击，以战略级威慑行动警告乌克兰及北约在对俄行动和立场上保持谨慎。
After Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election, members of his team repeatedly expressed their intention to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Donald Trump also nominated a member who supports negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to serve as the special envoy for resolving the Ukraine crisis. From the policies adopted during Donald Trump's previous term, it is evident that he tends to pull the US out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and shift the responsibility for security and the pressure of aiding Ukraine onto European allies. The shift in US policy has, to some extent, created an opportunity for Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
特朗普胜选后，其团队成员多次作出结束俄乌冲突的表态，特朗普还提名支持俄乌谈判的成员担任俄乌冲突问题特使。从特朗普上一总统任期采取的政策可以看出，其更倾向于让美国从俄乌冲突中抽身，将安全责任和援乌压力转嫁给欧洲盟友。美方的政策转向在某种程度上为俄乌谈判创造了契机。
Under the influence of the US, the attitudes of both Russia and Ukraine have changed. Russia has shown some flexibility and room for the negotiations. Meanwhile, the attitude of Ukraine towards negotiations has softened slightly. Although European countries have not abandoned aid to Ukraine, they no longer refuse to engage with Russia. Germany was the first to send out contact signals. On November 15, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone to discuss the possibility of ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Some "New Europe" countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, have also expressed views on ending the conflict on various occasions. Currently, although there is still no full alignment of positions, positive signs of a shift in the situation have emerged.
在美方因素影响下，俄乌双方态度有所转变。俄罗斯给予谈判一定的灵活度和转圜空间。与此同时，乌克兰对谈判的态度也略有软化。欧洲各国虽然并未放弃对乌援助，但也不再拒绝与俄接触。德国率先释放接触信号。11月15日，德国总理朔尔茨与俄总统普京通话，探讨以谈判结束俄乌冲突的可能性。匈牙利、斯洛伐克等部分“新欧洲”国家，也在不同场合表达了结束冲突的观点。目前看，尽管各方立场尚未找到充分的契合点，但已出现局势转圜的积极信号。
The prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is due to, on the one hand, the provoking and interfering external factors, and on the other hand, the deep-rooted contradictions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the lack of a sustainable security framework between Russia and Europe. As the contradictions that led to the conflict are not formed in a day, it is equally difficult to achieve a swift resolution to the war.
俄乌冲突延宕至今，一方面有外部因素的挑动干扰，另一方面也是由于俄乌之间根深蒂固的矛盾，以及俄欧间从未形成可持续的安全保障框架。正如导致冲突爆发的矛盾“非一日之寒”，战事的结束也很难迅速达成。
Although Donald Trump has stated that he "could solve the issue in one day", it is important to recognize that the ultimate goal of the US is not to fully resolve the Ukraine issue, but rather to profit from the situation in a different way. Upholding the "America First" policy, Donald Trump aims to withdraw the US from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and consolidate US hegemony in a way that involves lower costs and higher returns. In addition, the US arms industry and energy sector have profited significantly from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is unlikely that the US will give up this "no-lose" business and will not easily relinquish Ukraine, a strategically important region with political, military, and economic significance.
尽管特朗普曾表示“要在一天内解决俄乌冲突”，但应清醒看到，美国的最终目的并非劝和促谈、彻底解决乌克兰问题，而是换一种方式从中渔利。特朗普秉持“美国优先”政策，无非是要从俄乌战事中抽身，以投入更小、收益更高的方式巩固美霸权地位。此外，美军火工业、能源产业从俄乌冲突中获利颇丰，美国很难放弃这单“只赚不赔”的生意，不会轻易放手乌克兰这一兼具政治、军事、经济意义的战略要地。
It can be seen that no matter how the US government changes, its stance on containing Russia remains unchanged. It is difficult to establish a security framework between Russia and Europe in the short term, which means the deep-rooted contradictions between Russia and Ukraine cannot be resolved immediately, making the path to peace long and steep.
可以看出，无论美国政府如何更迭，其遏俄立场始终不变。而俄罗斯和欧洲之间的安全保障框架难以在短期内构建起来，这也使俄乌冲突双方的矛盾一时无法消除，实现和平道阻且长。
(The author is from the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)
（作者单位：军事科学院）
