By Ding Xiaoxing
丁晓星
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for over 1,000 days, but the fierce battles remain deadlocked. In August, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack on Kursk. Since September, Russian advances in eastern Ukraine have noticeably accelerated. Meanwhile, significant changes are unfolding off the battlefield. For example, Donald Trump, who has long vowed to end the conflict, won the US presidential election.
俄乌冲突已超过1000天，但双方在战场上的争斗仍胶着惨烈。8月，乌军突袭库尔斯克；9月以来，俄在乌东推进速度明显加快。同时，战场外的变化巨大，比如特朗普赢得美国大选，他早就放话要结束俄乌冲突。
Based on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the global landscape, the deadlock is hard to break but peace talks are inevitable. There are four reasons why such talks are inevitable.
观察当前俄乌双方及世界局势，可以认为僵局难破，但和谈是必然。
First, the deadlocked battle brought heavy losses to both sides. Since neither side can end the war quickly and completely, a prolonged war will only cause more losses. As the room for resolving the problem through military means alone has been exhausted, moving towards negotiation is inevitable.
其一，千日来，俄乌战场拉锯胶着，双方损失惨重，都无法迅速、彻底结束战局，持续下去也只会造成更多损失，单凭军事手段解决问题的空间已耗尽，走向谈判是必然。
Second, the voices advocating peace talks in Russia and Ukraine are growing louder. Both sides have suffered huge lost and irreversible casualties and people in both countries are tired of the war. Relevant polls show that more than 50% of the people in both countries support ending the war or starting peace talks as soon as possible.
其二，俄乌国内主张和谈的声音都在增大，双方消耗巨大，人员损失更不可逆，两国民众对战争都已感到疲惫，相关民调显示，两国支持尽快结束战争或开始和谈的民众占比皆超过50%。
Third, given the mismatched national and military power, Ukraine relies heavily on external support. It is reported that since February 2022, Ukraine has received over USD 235 billion in military and financial aid from more than 40 countries and EU institutions, excluding weapons, intelligence, and other support.
其三，在俄乌国力、军力差距较大的背景下，乌克兰主要依仗外部援助，据媒体报道，2022年2月以来，乌克兰已经从40多个国家和欧盟机构处获得了超过2350亿美元的军事与财政援助，另外还有各式武器、情报信息支持等。
Fourth, the external environment has undergone tremendous changes. Many elections and party alternations are underway in Western countries, which will have a major impact on the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Global South countries advocate that Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks as soon as possible. The six-point consensus on a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis jointly issued by China and Brazil has been supported by more than 100 countries. The group of Friends for Peace on the Ukraine crisis jointly initiated by Global South countries is also helping cool down the situation.
其四，外部环境已发生巨大变化，多场选举和政党轮替在西方国家举行，这会对俄乌冲突走向产生重大影响；“全球南方”国家主张俄乌尽快和谈，中国和巴西联合发表的政治解决乌克兰危机“六点共识”已得到一百多个国家的支持，“全球南方”国家共同发起成立的乌克兰危机“和平之友”小组也在为局势降温汇聚合力。
At the same time, there are still many difficulties to be solved before Russia and Ukraine can hold peace talks. Firstly, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated recently. The Biden administration allowed Ukraine's use of US Army Tactical Missile System（ATMS）to strike targets inside Russia, and the UK and France also seemed to have lifted relevant restrictions. On November 21, Russian troops used a new hypersonic missile Oreshnik to strike a facility within Ukraine's defense industrial complex, which was regarded as a response and severe warning to the West.
同时也应看到，俄乌能否和谈仍存在不少难题。其一，近日，俄乌冲突骤然升级，拜登政府同意乌克兰使用美国的美制陆军战术导弹系统（ATACMS）对俄本土纵深目标进行打击，英法也似乎解除了相关限制。21日，俄军使用一枚新型高超音速导弹“榛树”打击乌军工企业，这也被视为是对西方的回应和严厉警告。
Secondly, while Trump views aid to Ukraine as a "bottomless pit" and is reluctant to focus on the conflict, there are still many anti-Russia hardliners in the US and within the Republican Party. They believe that continuing the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be beneficial to the US and can achieve the strategic goal of "weakening Russia and controlling Europe" .
其二，虽然特朗普抱持着“对乌援助是无底洞”态度且并不想把精力放在俄乌冲突上，但美国国内、共和党内仍有不少对俄强硬派，他们认为继续俄乌冲突可能对美有利，可以达到“弱俄控欧”的战略目标。
Thirdly, European leaders fear that Trump's return to power might result in diminished support for Ukraine, thus threatening Europe's security. In a recent meeting, UK and French leaders reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also expressed his commitment to ensuring continued defense assistance to Ukraine.
其三，欧洲担心特朗普上台后可能会放弃支持乌克兰，从而威胁欧洲的安全，因此英法领导人本月会晤时重申“将坚定不移地支持乌克兰”，北约秘书长吕特也表示要确保继续向乌克兰提供防务援助。
As Trump's inauguration date approaches, the possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has increased. However, the differences between Russia and Ukraine are huge, and the road to peace talks is destined to be difficult. At present, the Trump team has not given a clear plan but has questioned the recent decision of the Biden administration and expressed that Europe should play a "key role" in the process of restoring peace. The most discussed in the West is the "land for NATO membership" plan, that is, Ukraine accepts the territorial reality while being granted NATO membership to prevent future conflicts. However, this plan is unlikely to gain Russia's approval. Russia and Ukraine have previously signed two Minsk agreements on the Ukraine crisis, which all failed to guarantee peace. Neither Russia nor Ukraine needs a third Minsk agreement, which makes peace talks very difficult.
随着特朗普就任日期不断临近，俄乌和谈的可能性有所增加，但俄乌双方分歧巨大，和谈之路注定不会简单。目前，特朗普团队还没有给出一个明确方案，只是对拜登政府近日的决定提出质疑，还表达了欧洲应当在恢复和平的进程中发挥“关键作用”等态度。西方目前讨论比较多的是“以土地换入约”的方案，即乌克兰接受领土现实，同时为避免将来再起冲突，给予乌克兰北约成员国地位。但这一方案肯定不会获得俄罗斯的同意。之前俄乌也就乌克兰危机签署过两份“明斯克协议”，但并没有保障和平，所以俄乌都不需要第三份“明斯克协议”，因此和谈的难度很大。
More importantly, the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the security issue in Europe. Even if Russia and Ukraine can temporarily cease fire, it cannot fundamentally solve the core issue of the conflict. Although Russia has proposed the initiative to build a new Eurasian security framework, the West still advocates the establishment of a security system without Russia. Therefore, the confrontation between Russia and the West will continue for a long time.
更重要的是，俄乌冲突的根源是欧洲的安全问题，俄乌即使能够暂时停火，也无法从根本上解决冲突的核心问题。俄罗斯虽然提出了构建“欧亚安全新框架”的倡议，但西方依然主张建立一个没有俄罗斯、排斥俄罗斯的安全体系，因此俄与西方的对峙仍将长期持续。
(The author is the director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
（作者是中国现代国际关系研究院欧亚所所长）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
