By Ding Long
丁隆
It's been a year since the new round of Palestine-Israel conflict broke out last October 7th, which is rare in terms of its long duration, massive casualties, and broad involvement. The war has caused a serious humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip with spreading spillover effects. One year on, instead of seeing the advent of peace in Gaza, we have witnessed Iran and Israel, two major Middle Eastern states, come to the point of conflict too, pushing the region once again to a dangerous state where it may fall into an all-out war with multiple outbursts and frontlines. As we look back on the tragic and dramatic developments in the Middle East in the past year, the urgency of putting an end to the current conflict cannot be clearer.
10月7日是新一轮巴以冲突爆发一周年的日子。延宕至今，这已成为巴以之间持续时间、伤亡人数、波及范围都极其罕见的一场冲突。战火在加沙地带造成严重人道危机，冲突外溢效应持续蔓延。一周年之际，世界没有看到和平降临加沙，两个中东大国伊朗与以色列的冲突却呈一触即发之势，中东再次面临多点爆发、多线轮动并向全面战争坠落的危险态势。在此时间关口，回望一年来中东冲突悲剧式、戏剧性的复杂演绎，无不警示着为本轮冲突画上句号的紧迫性。
This round of Palestine-Israel conflict is characterized by a grave humanitarian disaster, extensive spillover effects, multiple forms of warfare, and great difficulty in mediation.
本轮巴以冲突具有人道灾难重、外溢范围广、冲突形式多、调解难度大等特征。
First, the conflict has brought about what's believed to be the most serious humanitarian disaster since the end of WWII. Over the past year, more than 40,000 people of both conflicting parties have died, with another 100,000 injured and almost all Gaza residents displaced, and about 2/3 of the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or razed to the ground. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that building ruins and relics in Gaza amounted to 42 million tons, enough to build 11 Khufu Pyramids, and clearing them would take 14 years and more than US$1.2 billion while rebuilding Gaza would take 80 years.
第一，本轮冲突已酿成二战结束以来世所罕见的人道灾难。一年来，巴以双方4万余人死亡，10万人受伤，几乎所有加沙居民都遭遇流离失所之痛。加沙地带2/3的建筑遭到损毁或被夷为平地，据联合国开发计划署估算，加沙建筑废墟多达4200万吨，可堆出11个埃及胡夫金字塔，清理废墟需要14年，花费超过12亿美元。加沙重建则需要80年。
Second, the conflict has the most extensive spillover effects in history. After it broke out, the "Axis of Resistance" under Iran's leadership collaborated in Hamas' struggles against Israel. With Palestine and Israel in the center, several frontlines have emerged in turns in the Middle East, continuously intensifying the geopolitical confrontation and pushing the region to the edge of an all-out war. The first head-on conflict between Iran and Israel, two major military powers in the region, has sent them into a cycle of retaliation, adding more risks to the regional situation.
第二，本轮冲突在历次巴以冲突中外溢范围最广。巴以冲突爆发后，伊朗领导下的“抵抗轴心”协同联动，策应哈马斯抗以斗争。围绕巴以冲突这条主线，中东出现多条战线轮替的局面，中东地缘对抗不断被推高，地区濒临全面战争边缘。伊以作为中东两大军事强国，首次发生正面冲突，陷入打击与报复的轮回，扩大了中东局势的风险敞口。
Third, "unrestricted warfare" has hit through the ethical bottom line. The extensive employment of "unrestricted warfare" during this round of conflict has refreshed our perception of the form of warfare. Merchant ships in the Red Sea become targets of attacks, international transport security is threatened, and international freight is going through the roof. Tools of civilian communication are weaponized, causing concerns over the security of the global supply chain. "Targeted elimination", attacks on diplomatic agencies, and similar events have taken place frequently. The ethical bottom line in warfare has been constantly lowered, and the seeds of hatred have taken root, further imperiling the Middle East.
第三，超限战刷新伦理底线。在本轮冲突中，超限战被广泛使用，战争形式不断被刷新。红海商船成为袭击目标，国际运输安全受到威胁，国际运费飙升。民用通信工具被武器化，引发对全球供应链安全的担忧。“定点清除”、袭击外交机构等事件频繁发生，战争的伦理底线不断被突破，播下仇恨种子，使中东局势更加凶险。
Fourth, international mediation has made little headway. Rounds of international mediation have failed at the last minute because the conflicting parties didn't reach a basic consensus in dialogues and negotiations. This is further compounded by the ambiguity displayed by the US, the chief mediator that, however, has been fanning the flames under the table.
第四，国际斡旋举步维艰。冲突方在对话和谈判中难以达成基本共识，导致国际斡旋多次功亏一篑。美国作为主要调停方对巴以冲突态度暧昧，甚至表面调停实则火上浇油，也使国际斡旋努力不断受阻。
The current conflict between Palestine and Israel concerns not only the two parties themselves but also generates regional and global consequences that are likely to linger for a long time. The international community has seen more divergences on the issue, causing division within the Western bloc and in individual Western countries.
本轮冲突的影响不仅局限于巴以双方，还表现在地区和全球层面，冲突衍生效应或将持续相当长的时间。国际社会围绕巴以冲突的分歧加剧，甚至由此导致了西方阵营内部分裂、西方国家社会撕裂。
Despite its scale, the conflicting parties have nevertheless exercised great restraint to avoid a broader region-wide war. So far, there has been no territorial or boundary change, and Arab countries, which are a majority in the region, haven't been involved either. The conflict is still incomparable to the past five Middle East wars and unlikely to escalate into the sixth either.
虽然本轮冲突规模巨大，但冲突各方仍保持着相当程度的克制，以避免引爆范围更广的中东大战。迄今为止，冲突尚未导致领土和边界变化，占据中东主流的阿拉伯国家并未卷入，目前来看也还难以将其与前五次中东战争相提并论，未来爆发“第六次中东战争”的可能性较小。
There remains a silver lining in the current situation, and the international community should believe in and magnify the hope of peace. The conflict has brought the Palestine issue back into the international spotlight as a priority, awakened people's conscience, and set off the significant meaning of the "two-state" solution. The call for peace is gaining ground, and China and other countries of the "Global South" are busy mediating for a ceasefire, acting as the mainstay force for peace. China has brought about a historic reconciliation among various factions in Palestine. More Western countries are recognizing Palestine as a sovereign state, and it is enjoying a heightened standing at the UN. All these are adding bricks to the foundation for solving the Palestine issue with the "two-state" plan.
尽管形势危急，但本轮冲突并非“一团漆黑”，国际社会应当坚信并挖掘其中蕴含着的和平希望。冲突使巴勒斯坦问题被重新拉回聚光灯下，成为国际社会优先事项。冲突唤起人类良知，凸显“两国方案”的重要意义，国际和平呼声正在汇聚，中国等“全球南方”国家为停火止战奔走，成为和平力量的中流砥柱。中国促成巴勒斯坦各派实现历史性和解、越来越多西方国家承认巴勒斯坦国、巴勒斯坦在联合国的地位提高等，都在不断夯实以“两国方案”解决巴勒斯坦问题的基础。
The century-old conflict in the Middle East won't be resolved overnight, but peace for the region is a must-achieve goal no matter how far away it looks now. The Palestine-Israel conflict is the root cause of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, and reaching a ceasefire deal is the top priority at the moment. Once that is realized, it is also important to further augment the peaceful outcomes through a series of measures, such as cementing the reconciliation within Palestine, convening a new regional peace summit, and granting Palestine an official membership at the UN. Only then will the crisis truly be transformed into an opportunity and a new starting point for Middle East's peace process.
中东百年冲突的解决不会一蹴而就，但中东和平应成为虽远必至的目标。巴以冲突是当前中东危局的根源，停火止战仍是当务之急。在未来促成停火后，还需通过巩固巴勒斯坦内部和解、召开新的中东和平会议、赋予巴勒斯坦联合国正式会员国地位等措施，进一步扩大和平成果，真正化危为机，让本轮冲突成为中东和平进程的新起点。
(The author is a professor at The Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University)
（作者是上海外国语大学中东研究所教授）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
