By Chen Yue and Chen Jian
陈岳、陈健
File photo: Andersen Air Force Base, Guam
资料图：美国在关岛的安德森空军基地。
Recent media reports show that the US military will have up to two missile flight tests or tracking exercises at Guam every year for a period of ten years, starting from this October, with the aim of protecting Guam from the attack of ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and cruise missiles. Analysts said the US' reinforcement of war-preparedness in Guam and the Guam-centered forward base network is essentially aimed at consolidating its deterrence in the Asia Pacific and advancing its so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy". This has posed a grave threat to regional peace and stability.
近日有媒体报道称，美军计划从今年10月起，每年在关岛进行最多2次导弹飞行测试或追踪演习，为期10年。该计划旨在保护关岛免受弹道导弹、高超音速导弹和巡航导弹的打击。分析人士认为，美国着力强化关岛战备建设，完善以关岛为核心的前沿基地网，本质上是为了巩固其在亚太地区的威慑力，为所谓的“印太战略”服务，已对地区和平与稳定构成严重威胁。
Guam's rising strategic value
战略价值日益凸显
The US has regarded winning the "major-country competition" as its top strategic objective in recent years, and the West Pacific has increasingly become a key region on its radar. Yet the rising military strengths of Asia-Pacific countries and their R&D and application of new military technologies have brought into question the viability of US military bases on the "first island chain". At the same time, since the host countries ofthose bases are unwilling to be victimized in the major-country confrontation, the US now has to retreat to the "second island chain".
近年来，美国把应对“大国竞争”作为首要战略目标，西太平洋地区日益成为其关注的重点区域。然而，随着亚太地区国家军事实力的发展以及新兴军事技术的研发与投入使用，位于“第一岛链”的美军基地生存能力堪忧；同时，相关基地所在国并不愿卷入大国对抗沦为牺牲品,美国不得已开始向“第二岛链”收缩。
In this process, Guam, the center of the "second island chain" that stands at a stronghold in the West Pacific, is of essential importance for the US' military deployments in the Indo-Pacific region. This year alone, Washington has test-fired hypersonic missiles, relocated 4,000 troops from Japan to Guam, deployed the Marine littoral regiment to Guam, and held part of the Valiant Shield 2024 exercise there, all at testing to the strategic value of the island.
在此过程中，作为“第二岛链”核心的关岛扼守西太平洋要冲,是美国在印太地区军事布势的核心节点。仅今年而言，从试射高超音速导弹，到4000名驻日美军移防关岛，到宣布在关岛部署“濒海战斗团”，再到“英勇盾牌-2024”联合军演将部分演习区域设在关岛附近，美国对关岛战略价值的重视程度不言而喻。
Recent years have seen the US investing hugely in reinforcing war-preparedness in Guam. Statistics show that from FY2015 to FY2023, the country allocated a total of USD 3.4 billion to war-preparedness projects on the island, and the US Department of Defense (DoD) will request another USD 7.3 billion in FY2024-2028 to keep refining the projects to comprehensively enhance the commanding, supporting and defensive capabilities on the island.
近年来，美不惜投入巨额经费加强关岛战备建设。据统计，2015至2023财年，美为关岛战备工程项目总计拨款34亿美元。2024至2028财年，美国防部还将申请73亿美元用于完善岛上的战备工程，全面提升关岛的指挥、保障和防御能力。
Continuous development of round-Guam defense capabilities
关岛防御圈建设持续推进
To turn Guam into a so-called "unsinkable aircraft carrier" on the "second island chain", the US is advancing its defense system in three ways.
为了将关岛打造成“第二岛链”所谓“不沉的航空母舰”，目前美国正从三个层面着力推进关岛防御体系建设。
Establishing a distributed tiered missile defense system and building an "enhanced integrated air defense and missile defense system". In spite of the US' long-year presence in Guam, the island's current missile defense system is weak and separated, so the US military plans to integrate the army, navy and missile defense forces on the island to form an integrated air and missile defense system.
构建分布式分层导弹防御体系，打造“增强型一体化防空和导弹防御系统”。尽管美军在关岛经营多年，然而其现有导弹防御体系仍存在力量薄弱、各自为战的弊端。鉴于此，美计划整合陆军、海军和导弹防御局驻关岛防空反导力量，构建一体化防空反导体系。
Introducing the "distributed attack" approach and forging a round-Guam combat system. The US military has incorporated the Northern Mariana Islands, including the Tinian Island, Saipan Island, and Wake Island, into the round-Guam combat system in the attempt to form a multi-point, distributed, and flexible base network. These islands, along with Hawaii, will constitute a cluster of mutually corresponding islands with a certain depth.
引入“分布式打击”作战思想，打造环关岛作战体系。美军将包括天宁岛、塞班岛、威克岛在内的北马里亚纳群岛纳入环关岛作战体系，试图构建“多点、散布、弹性”基地网。未来，它们和夏威夷将一路延伸，形成相互呼应且具有一定纵深的岛屿基地群。
Strengthening the cooperation with Asia-Pacific allies to intensify combat capabilities around Guam. The US military has taken a series of steps in recent years to better integrate its Asia-Pacific allies into the defense system of Guam, including constantly organizing exercises around Guam with Japan, Australia and other countries, and trying various means to obtain the right to temporarily use the military bases and other key infrastructure in regional countries, particularly Pacific island countries.
加强和亚太地区盟友的合作，强化关岛周边作战能力。近年来，美国军方一直在采取行动，以期更好地将该地区盟友整合到关岛防御体系中。为此，美不但频频与日本、澳大利亚等国在关岛周边开展演习，还谋图通过各种方式取得地区国家尤其是太平洋岛国军事基地及重要基础设施的临时使用权。
A threat to regional peace and stability
危害地区和平稳定
The US' establishment of the Guam defense system will inevitably stimulate relevant countries to accelerate their buildup of offensive capability, even triggering a new round of arms race in the West Pacific. In fact, the US' repeated announcement to intensify Guam's defense already revealed its lack of confidence in this area. The more military bases are built on the island, the more likely it will be under missile attacks, which in turn forces the US to further strengthen the defense capabilities there. Such spiraling up has made the small island a real "bomb magnet" on the "second island chain".
美国在关岛构建防御体系，必然会刺激相关国家加快进攻能力建设，甚至在西太平洋地区引发新一轮军备竞赛。事实上，美军频频宣称要强化关岛防御，本身就是对关岛防御缺乏信心的表现。关岛的军事基地修建得越多，就越容易吸引导弹袭击，逼迫美军继续强化关岛的防御。反复加码博弈，让这座不大的岛屿成了“第二岛链”上名副其实的“炸弹磁石”。
For many years, the Asia Pacific has maintained overall stability and been the fastest-growing region in the world. The US' war-preparedness reinforcement in the region is no different from "erecting fences at another person's doorstep", not only seriously damaging the strategic mutual trust among regional countries and fueling regional tension, but also sending a wrong signal to its allies that they may also make provocations. Clearly, the superpower, which is obsessed with "major-country competition" in total disregard of other countries' security and welfare, has become the very source of trouble and chaos for the Asia Pacific.
多年来，亚太地区保持总体稳定，已成为全球发展最快的地区。美在该地区加紧战备，相当于“把篱笆扎到别人家门口”，不仅严重损害了地区国家的战略互信，刺激地区紧张局势，也向其盟友传递出可以冒险挑衅滋事的错误信号。种种迹象表明，痴迷于“大国竞争”、无视他国安全与福祉的美国，已成为亚太地区最大的乱源。
The Asia Pacific is not an arena for the zero-sum game. Anyone attempting to gain the upper hand in the "major-country competition" by resorting to military forces and bloc confrontation will only end up in a new security dilemma and a strategic impasse.
亚太地区不是零和博弈的角斗场。试图依靠穷兵黩武、阵营对抗谋取所谓“大国竞争”优势，只会让自身陷入新的安全困境，走入战略上的“死胡同”。
(The authors are from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA.)
（作者单位：军事科学院战争研究院）
