By Sun Qi
孙琦
The Swedish parliament recently approved a defense cooperation agreement signed with the US last December, allowing the US military to deploy servicemembers and supplies and carry out exercises at all the 17 military bases, military airports and ground force stations across the country. Sweden approved the agreement to strengthen its military cooperation with the US and obtain some sort of "security guarantees" amid the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, but this decision will only make it more insecure.
不久前，瑞典议会批准了去年12月同美国签署的一项防务合作协议，允许美军使用瑞典全境17个军事基地、军用机场和地面部队驻地。根据协议，美军可在这些地方部署军事人员和物资并进行演习。在俄乌冲突持续延宕的背景下，瑞典急于加强同美国的军事合作，以期从中获得某种“安全保障”，但只会让其离安全越来越远。
"The agreement makes it clear that US military personnel won't be bound by Swedish laws, which means the US can carry out military activities in the country without hindrance," said Cui Hongjian, director of the Center of the European Union and Regional Development Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University. Since the breakout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Sweden, becoming increasingly concerned about the so-called security threats from Russia, has consistently enhanced its military cooperation with the US, including opening all its domestic military bases to the US. It also seeks a military framework integration with the US-led NATO to merge into its combat system more quickly.
“这一协议明确了美军事人员不受瑞典法律的约束，意味着美军可‘不受阻碍’地在瑞典境内开展相关军事行动。”北京外国语大学欧盟与区域发展研究中心主任崔洪建表示，俄乌冲突爆发以来，瑞典方面对所谓来自俄罗斯的安全威胁认知不断上升，持续深化同美国的双边军事合作，向美国开放其境内所有军事基地便是其中一项重要内容。同时，瑞典还谋求与美国主导下的北约进行军事框架整合，加速融入北约作战体系。
In addition to Sweden, the US signed defense agreements with Finland and Denmark. The three countries have collectively opened up to 35 military bases to the US military. This, coupled with similar agreements signed with Norway and Iceland before, has further reinforced the US' military presence in Northern Europe and facilitated its future maneuvers in the North Pole region.
除瑞典外，美国还与芬兰、丹麦签署了防务合作协议，三国共向美国开放多达35处军事基地。加之美国与挪威、冰岛此前已签署类似防务协议，美军在北欧地区的军事存在将进一步加强，未来前出北极地区也将更为便捷。
"Compared with other Nordic countries, Sweden has adopted more radical military policies," said Cui, who attributed that to Sweden's unique geostrategic position and the prospect of military integration with NATO. Geographically, Sweden doesn't share a long borderline with Russia like Finland does, so it has less qualms about elevating its military ties with the US. Meanwhile, its Gotland is of great military and strategic significance for controlling the Baltic Sea route, including the route to the Gulf of Finland and Russia's second largest city, St. Petersburg. Moreover, Sweden's military industry is highly localized, giving it more confidence to enhance its military strengths. All these factors have combined to drive its recent policy shift.
“同北欧其他国家相比，瑞典目前采取的军事政策显得更为激进。”崔洪建认为，这是由其独特的地缘战略位置，以及与北约的军事整合前景决定的。从地理位置上看，瑞典不像芬兰那样和俄罗斯有漫长的共同边境线，在升级同美国的军事关系时，对俄罗斯的顾忌相对较少。但其所属哥得兰岛具有重要的军事战略意义，从这里可以控制波罗的海的海上航线，包括通往芬兰湾以及俄第二大城市圣彼得堡的通道。另外，瑞典军工产业的本土化水平较高，对自身军事实力的信心也就更强。这些因素共同构成了瑞典近期政策转向的内在逻辑。
"From the US' perspective, it has signed a series of bilateral defense deals with the Nordic countries recently, aiming to take advantage of the Ukraine crisis to build and reinforce NATO's north wing." According to Cui, for some time now, NATO has made special efforts to apply geopolitical containment and suppression against Russia along the line from the three Baltic states to Central and Eastern European countries. After the Ukraine crisis broke out, especially with the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the north wing has become a key direction of the US and NATO's deterrence against Russia. If any Nordic state requests, the US' nuclear umbrella may well extend to Northern Europe or even the North Pole. Besides, how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will go also bears heavily on the formation and expansion of the north wing.
“从美国的角度看，其近来和北欧国家纷纷签署系列双边防务协议，意在利用乌克兰危机打造并加强所谓的北约北翼。”崔洪建表示，一段时间以来，北约重点从波罗的海三国到中东欧国家一线来对俄进行地缘围堵施压。乌克兰危机爆发后，特别是芬兰、瑞典加入北约后，北约北翼成为美国和北约对俄进行前沿威慑的一个重要方向。如果北欧国家提出要求，美国的核保护伞可能继续延伸到北欧地区甚至北极地区。同时，俄乌冲突的走向，也会对北约北翼的成型以及扩张产生重要影响。
In response to NATO's northern expansion, Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed an order approving the re-establishment of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts to enhance the military deployments in the northwest of the country. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said they will deploy weapons and equipment in the two military districts to cope with security threats arising from Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO.
针对北约的北扩，俄罗斯总统普京已签署法令，批准重设莫斯科军区和列宁格勒军区，增强俄西北部军事力量。俄外长拉夫罗夫表示，俄将在这两个军区部署武器装备，以应对瑞典、芬兰加入北约后对俄安全构成的威胁。
Cui analyzed that Russia may make some targeted moves in areas where it shares borders with those countries located in the north wing of NATO and the Baltic region, including deploying tactical nuclear weapons and the "Iskander" missile, organizing military drills, and testing advanced weapons such as the hypersonic missile. The increasingly longer frontline and more intense confrontation between NATO and Russia will exert lasting negative impacts on Europe's security situation.
在崔洪建看来，俄罗斯接下来的军事回应，或将主要集中在与北约北翼国家接壤的地区以及波罗的海，采取一些针锋相对的动作，包括部署战术核武器和“伊斯坎德尔”导弹、举行军事演习、试验高超音速导弹等先进武器等。北约与俄罗斯之间对抗战线不断延长、对抗烈度持续走高，将对整个欧洲地区的安全局势产生长期的消极影响。
