By Wei Yinchu
尉寅础
The US-UK military coalition conducted multiple strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen's Red Sea port city of Hodeidah on Saturday, Houthi-run Satellite TV Channel al-Masirah reported in February 15. Recently, the Houthis have attacked US and UK ships in the Red Sea several times. The ongoing clashes between the US, the UK, and the Houthis may further escalate the situation in the Red Sea.
2月15日，据也门胡塞武装控制的马西拉电视台报道，美英两国当天再次对也门红海城市荷台达发动空袭。日前，胡塞武装在红海数次袭击美英船只。美英两国与胡塞武装缠斗不断，或将导致红海局势进一步升级。
Since a new round of Israel-Palestine conflict broke out in October last year, the Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks against Israel multiple times under the pretext of supporting Palestine. They have also attacked ships associated with Israel in the Red Sea. The Houthis announced on January 10 that they had used a large number of missiles and drones to attack a US ship providing "support and protection" for a ship associated with Israel. On January 31, the Houthis military spokesman Yahya Sarea stated that they consider "all American and British warships in the Red and Arabian Sea participating in the aggression against our country" as legitimate targets and would strike them at appropriate time. As tensions escalate in the Red Sea, several international shipping companies have announced the suspension of Red Sea routes and will instead bypass the southern tip of Africa.
去年10月新一轮巴以冲突爆发后，胡塞武装以支持巴勒斯坦为由，多次对以色列发动导弹和无人机攻击，并在红海对与以色列有关联的船只进行袭击。胡塞武装1月10日宣布，他们动用大量导弹和无人机，攻击了一艘为关联以色列的船只提供“支持和保护”的美国船只。1月31日，也门胡塞武装发言人叶海亚•萨雷亚发表声明说，胡塞武装已经将“所有在红海和阿拉伯海行驶的美英军舰视为合法攻击目标”，并将在“适当时刻”对这些军舰发动打击。随着红海局势的升级，多家国际航运企业已宣布暂停红海航线转而绕行非洲南端。
In response, the US announced in December last year the formation of a multinational force to escort ships in the Red Sea. Subsequently, in response to attacks by the Houthis on ships associated with Israel in the waters near Yemen, the US and the UK carried out airstrikes on multiple facilities of the Houthis in the Yemeni capital Sanaa, the western Red Sea city of Hodeidah, and the northern province of Saada on January 12. Since then, the US has continued its airstrikes against the Houthis. Although US President Joe Biden has claimed that these actions are defensive operations in response to attacks, the Houthis see them as large-scale aggression and threaten retaliation against ships related to the US, the UK and their interests.
作为回应，美国去年12月宣布牵头组建一支多国部队，在红海执行护航任务。而后，针对胡塞武装在也门附近海域袭击关联以色列的船只，美国联合英国于1月12日空袭了胡塞武装位于也门首都萨那、西部红海城市荷台达和北部萨达省的多处设施。此后，美国方面针对胡塞武装的空袭不断。尽管美国总统拜登声称，这些行动是遭到袭击后采取的“防御行动”，但胡塞武装将其视为“大规模侵略行为”，并威胁将对美英及其利益有关的船只进行报复。
The escalating confrontation between the US, the UK, and the Houthis not only exacerbates the security situation in the Red Sea region but also plunges residents into deep anxiety. With the worsening situation, the port of Hodeidah, controlled by the Houthis, may face closure again. This Red Sea port, located approximately 150 kilometers southwest of Sanaa, is the main entry point for goods into the areas controlled by the Houthis, including humanitarian aid and bulk commodities. If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the port of Hodeidah are closed, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen will worsen.
美英两国与胡塞武装对抗的不断升级，不仅使红海地区的安全形势愈加严峻，更使当地民众深陷不安。随着局势的恶化，胡塞武装控制的荷台达港可能面临再次封锁。这座位于萨那西南约150公里的红海港口是胡塞武装控制地区最主要的物资入口，人道援助物资和大宗商品都需要从这里进入。一旦曼德海峡和荷台达港关闭，也门面临的人道主义灾难将会恶化。
It should be pointed out that US military strikes may provoke more aggressive actions from the Houthis, ultimately making it more difficult to resolve the issue of Red Sea shipping. A research institution believes that US and UK airstrikes may backfire, as they would give the Houthis more reasons to launch attacks. The Houthis, which gradually grew stronger during the civil war, not only survived several years of military attacks by the multinational coalition, but also developed into a force that can influence the regional situation. Therefore, this armed group will not be greatly weakened by air strikes by the US and the UK. In the future, there is a possibility that the Houthis will launch more attacks in retaliation against the US and the UK. Moreover, despite the destruction of missile, radar, and drone facilities controlled by the Houthis, the organization continues to gain support at the international and regional levels due to its confrontation with the West and Israel.
需要指出的是，美国军事打击行动或使胡塞武装采取更加激进的行动，最终只会令红海航运问题更加难以解决。一家研究机构认为，美英的空袭行动可能会适得其反，因为这将给胡塞武装更多发动袭击的理由。在内战中逐渐壮大的胡塞武装，不仅在多国联军的数年军事打击中生存下来，还发展成为能影响地区局势的一方力量，不会因为美英两国的空袭而遭到太大程度削弱。未来，不排除胡塞武装发动更多袭击以报复美英的可能性。而且，尽管胡塞武装控制的导弹、雷达和无人机设施遭到破坏，但由于与美西方和以色列的对抗，该组织在国际和地区层面不断获得支持。
The turbulence in the Red Sea is a result of the spillover of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Therefore, to prevent the spillover of the Israel-Palestine conflict to wider regions such as the Red Sea, the immediate priority is to cease hostilities and push for Israel-Palestine peace. The two-state solution is the only viable path to achieve peace between Israel and Palestine, and deviating from this solution is akin to building castles on quicksand. Peace and stability in the Middle East cannot be achieved based on the US' biased stance towards Israel. Rather, it requires equal dialogue and practical efforts among conflicting parties and stakeholders.
红海局势频起波澜，是巴以冲突外溢的结果。因此，要防止巴以冲突对红海等更广泛地区的外溢影响，当务之急是停火止战，推动实现巴以和平。而“两国方案”则是实现巴以和平的唯一可行出路，如果背离“两国方案”，无异于在流沙之上盖房子。中东的和平稳定，也不可能在美国“一边倒”的巴以立场基础上实现，而要靠冲突方及利益相关方的平等对话和务实努力才有可能实现。
