日本援助菲律宾的FPS-3ME雷达系统。（资料图片）
A picture shows the FPS-3ME, new warning and control radar system, as assistance from Japan to the Philippines. (Profile picture)
By Hua Dan, Wang Zeyan, and Yang Jing
11月3日至4日，日本首相岸田文雄访问菲律宾，与菲总统马科斯举行会晤，双方确认将启动《互惠准入协定》谈判。
From November 3 to 4, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio visited the Philippines and held a summit with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The two sides have agreed to start negotiations on a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA).
有分析人士指出，该协定一旦签署，就意味着日菲可在对方领土相互部署武装力量，日本自卫队也将同菲军实施规模大、融合性强的联合军演或其他军事行动。日菲不断加强军事勾连，将对地区安全形势产生一系列负面影响。
Analysts have pointed out that once the agreement is signed, it means that Japan and the Philippines can deploy armed forces on each other’s territory, and the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) can also carry out large-scale and highly integrated joint defense drills or other military operations in collaboration with the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). The continuous strengthening of military collusion between Japan and the Philippines is bound to deliver an array of negative impacts on the regional security situation.
相互勾连动作不断
Continuous strengthening of military collusion
岸田文雄访菲律宾前一天，日本防卫省发布消息称，日本决定根据“政府安全保障能力强化支援”框架，向菲律宾提供海岸监视雷达等装备，以提升菲律宾军队的“海域态势感知”能力。
On the day before Kishida’s visit to the Philippines, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced that Japan had decided to provide the Philippines with Japan’s coastal surveillance radar system and other equipment under the new Official Security Assistance (OSA) framework, to enhance the Philippine military’s "maritime situational awareness" capability.
事实上，日本与菲律宾的军事勾连并非始于今日。日本前首相安倍晋三在任期间，日本就曾向菲律宾赠送数艘二手巡逻艇，并帮助其培训海上警备人员。2022年4月，两国在东京召开首次外长防长“2+2”会谈，就派遣自卫队赴菲律宾开展救灾行动等事项达成协议。按照日本防卫省的消息，除提供雷达之外，日本还准备向菲律宾免费提供一批小型警备艇，未来还有可能追加提供大型巡逻船。
In fact, the bilateral military collusion has started long before. During the tenure of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan donated several second-hand patrol boats to the Philippines and helped it train maritime security personnel. In April 2022, the two countries held their first "2+2" meeting between foreign ministers and defense ministers in Tokyo, Japan, reaching an agreement on dispatching troops of the JSDF to the Philippines for disaster relief operations and other matters. As revealed by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, Japan has also prepared to provide the Philippines with a batch of small patrol boats for free in addition to the radar system and even additional large patrol boats to come.
双方启动《互惠准入协定》谈判一事更加值得关注。此前，美国同菲律宾签订过《访问部队协定》。日本同菲律宾签订《互惠准入协定》后，日本自卫队就可以部署到菲律宾，为其配合美国“印太战略”、搅乱南海局势找到新的立足点。
Notably, the two sides are to initiate the negotiations on the RAA. The United States and the Philippines have signed the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Once the RAA between Japan and the Philippines is reached, the JSDF could have the right to be deployed to the Philippines, finding a new foothold to meddle in the situation in the South China Sea and promote the US’ “Indo-Pacific strategy”.
居心叵测各有所图
Ramping up to something for each with ulterior motives
日本和菲律宾在军事上不断走近，背后也各有所图。
Japan and the Philippines have been getting closer in military cooperation, each having ulterior motives.
近年来，日本自卫队重心向西南方向转移的趋势愈发明显。扶持菲律宾加强军力建设，既有助于弥补自卫队西南方向军力相对薄弱的短板，也有助于进一步将菲律宾绑上战车，继而怂恿其挑起南海岛礁争端，搅乱南海和平局势，遏制周边国家崛起势头。
In recent years, the JSDF has been constantly shifting its focus towards the southwest, as evidently shown. Supporting the Philippines in strengthening its military strength serves to help Japan make up for the relatively weak military deployment of the JSDF in the southwest, further tie the Philippines to the Japanese chariot, and then encourage the Philippines to instigate disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, with a view to curbing the rise of neighboring countries.
从菲律宾角度来看，一方面，菲律宾可以借机引入相关装备，为自己在南海的冒险行径壮胆；另一方面，菲律宾与美国本就是军事同盟，日菲军事勾连的不断加深，或多或少都带有随美国起舞围堵中国的意图。但是，菲律宾这种行径无异于“引狼入室”，只会让自己被更加牢固地绑在美日的战车上。
From the perspective of the Philippines, on the one hand, it can take the opportunity to introduce relevant equipment to embolden its adventurous operations in the South China Sea; on the other hand, as the Philippines has already been an ally to the United States, the continuous deepening of the military collusion between Japan and the Philippines has more or less the intention of encircling China in following the United States. However, this move taken by the Philippines is tantamount to inviting a wolf into the house and will ultimately tie itself to the chariots of the United States and Japan even more firmly.
挑动紧张破坏和平
Provoking tension and undermining peace
日本顽固坚持零和对抗思维，罔顾事实抹黑炒作周边国家正常的军力建设和军事活动，同菲律宾强化军事勾连，挑动军事对抗，给地区和平稳定带来严峻挑战。
Japan has stubbornly adhered to the zero-sum mentality in confrontation. It has smeared and sensationalized the normal military construction and military activities of neighboring countries by distorting the facts and strengthened military collusion with the Philippines to instigate military confrontation, posing serious challenges to regional peace and stability.
一方面，增加了菲律宾在南海问题上进行军事冒险的可能性。近来，菲方船只无视中方一再劝阻和警告，执意在我南海岛礁侵权挑衅、制造事端。菲方的这种行径，给域外大国挑拨是非、误导国际舆论提供了可乘之机。
On the one hand, the move has boosted the possibility of the Philippines engaging in risky military operations on the South China Sea issue. Disregarding repeated warnings from the Chinese authorities, Philippine vessels recently have deliberately stirred up trouble on islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Such behavior by the Philippines allows major powers outside the region to sow discord and mislead international public opinion.
另一方面，给日本突破和平宪法提供了更多机会。近年来，日本通过武器出口、海外练兵等方式扩大海外影响，并借机获取相关国家的支持。日菲《互惠准入协定》签署生效后，日本可能在菲律宾轮流派驻陆海空自卫队，利用与东南亚国家的军事合作“借船出海”，实现其国家与国防“正常化”的野心，给地区局势增添不确定性。
On the other hand, this move provided more opportunities for Japan to break through the pacifist Constitution. In recent years, Japan has expanded its overseas influence by sales of military weapons, overseas military training, and so on, while taking every opportunity to gain support from relevant countries. The signing and entry into force of the Japan-Philippines ARR will render Japan the right to deploy land, sea or air self-defense forces to the Philippines. Relying on military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, Japan intends to achieve its ambition of "normalization" of the nation and national defense, adding uncertainty to the regional situation.
然而，日菲两国关系的基础并不牢固，且两国历史问题尚未完全解决。二战期间，日军曾在菲律宾犯下罄竹难书的罪行，特别是日军在1945年2月制造的马尼拉大屠杀中，超过10万名菲律宾平民惨遭杀害。若日本自卫队驻军菲律宾成为现实，很可能勾起民众对惨痛历史的回忆，激起对日本的反感与排斥。
However, the Japan-Philippines relations don’t have a solid foundation, and the historical issues between the two countries are yet to be fully resolved. During World War II, the Japanese armed forces committed countless crimes in the Philippines, especially in the Manila Massacre in February 1945, where over 100,000 Filipino civilians were brutally killed. If the JSDF’s presence in the Philippines becomes a reality, it is likely to evoke memories of the bitter history among the public and provoke their resentment and rejection towards Japan.
日菲军事勾连加剧地区局势紧张，破坏与周边国家关系的政治基础，是十分错误和危险的。对此，国际社会特别是周边国家应予以密切关注并提高警惕。
The military collusion between Japan and the Philippines is very wrong and dangerous, which only exacerbates regional tensions and undermines the political foundation of relations with neighboring countries. The international community, especially neighboring countries, should pay close attention and be vigilant.
（作者单位：陆军工程大学）
(The author is from the PLA Army Engineering University)
